Tromsø
Tromsø
1 vs 1

Eliteserien · Matchday

2026-05-25 15:00:00 · 23:00 · Alfheim Stadion

Aalesund
Aalesund

AI Predicted: 2-1|Actual: 1-1

WinnerScoreO/U 2.5BTTS

AI Prediction

Tromsø
TRO
2 - 1
Aalesund
AAL
63%
Confidence
Moderate Confidence
64.0%Home
21.0%Draw
15.0%Away
62.1%Home
21.9%Draw
16.0%Away
Tromsø enter this Eliteserien clash as clear favorites, boosted by Aalesund's suspension blow — A. Warneryd is ruled out through a red card ban, weakening the visitors' options. Tromsø's home advantage and superior win probability make their midfield control a decisive factor, particularly against a depleted Aalesund side. AI pick: Tromsø Win

Top AI Picks

AI-generated recommendations
Two outcomes coveredHome or Draw
85% probability
Over or Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5
58% chance of 3+ goals
Will both teams find the net?No
52% one side shut out
Handicap advantage pickNo data available
Most likely to scoreHeine LarsenAlso: Lars Olden Larsen, Aleksander Elvebu

Goal Probability

Tromsø Aalesund
0%
39%
0
33%
61%
1
51%
0%
2
16%
0%
3+

Odds Comparison

64%
63%
+1.2%
21%
21%
-0.3%
15%
16%
-0.8%
PredictNext AI Market Avg
AI & Market Agree: Home Win
EV = AI Prob × Odds − 1
bet3651.504.106.00-4.0%-13.9%-10.0%
PinnacleVALUE1.484.746.72-5.3%-0.5%+0.8%
1xbet1.544.206.14-1.4%-11.8%-7.9%
WilliamHill1.504.205.50-4.0%-11.8%-17.5%
Betfair1.444.205.50-7.8%-11.8%-17.5%
bwin1.504.405.75-4.0%-7.6%-13.8%
Unibet1.454.406.40-7.2%-7.6%-4.0%
Ladbrokes1.484.205.25-5.3%-11.8%-21.3%
Marathonbet1.494.335.85-4.6%-9.1%-12.3%
888Sport1.504.205.50-4.0%-11.8%-17.5%
Dafabet1.504.606.00-4.0%-3.4%-10.0%
10BetVALUE1.404.407.25-10.4%-7.6%+8.7%
BetVictor1.504.005.50-4.0%-16.0%-17.5%
Sbo1.504.145.61-4.0%-13.1%-15.8%
MansionBetVALUE1.454.856.50-7.2%+1.8%-2.5%
CloudBet1.484.656.45-5.3%-2.3%-3.2%
Interwetten1.504.506.00-4.0%-5.5%-10.0%
Cashpoint1.534.504.90-2.1%-5.5%-26.5%
Macauslot1.404.605.10-10.4%-3.4%-23.5%
MelBet1.514.286.38-3.4%-10.1%-4.3%
Coral1.484.205.25-5.3%-11.8%-21.3%

Polymarket Odds

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Trading Strategy

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Match Report

Result Summary

A hard-fought affair at Alfheim Stadion ended in a 1-1 draw as Tromsø and Aalesund shared the spoils in this Eliteserien encounter on May 25, 2026. Sander Håvik Innvær handed the hosts an electric start with a second-minute opener, but Mathias Christensen levelled for Aalesund just after the hour mark to ensure the points were split.

Match Analysis

Tromsø wasted no time making their intentions clear. Inside just two minutes, Innvær latched onto an assist from Jens Hjertø-Dahl to fire home with his right foot, giving the home side the perfect platform. The goal set the tone for what would be a dominant first-half performance from Jørgen Vik's side, who finished the match with 62% possession and an impressive 131 attacks compared to Aalesund's 88.

Despite their territorial advantage, Tromsø were unable to put the game to bed. Their 17 total shots — with 6 on target — told a story of a side that created but could not convert. Aalesund, marshalled by Kjetil André Rekdal's disciplined defensive shape, limited the damage and stayed within striking distance throughout.

The visitors grew into the match after half-time. In the 54th minute, Innvær received a yellow card for a foul — a moment that perhaps reflected growing frustration — and just three minutes later, Christensen capitalised, guiding a right-foot shot past Jakob Haugaard to restore parity at 1-1. It was a sucker-punch that Tromsø, despite their statistical superiority, could not recover from.

Rekdal moved to freshen things up in the 67th minute, introducing Ivan Cabrel Djantou Tchaboutang and Kristoffer Nesso, followed by Håkon Butli Hammer in the 75th. Tromsø responded with their own double substitution at the 66-minute mark — Lars Olden Larsen and Daniel Braut coming on — but neither side could find the decisive goal. Aalesund's Ulrik Valderhaug Syversen was cautioned in the 82nd minute for a foul as the game became increasingly physical in its closing stages.

Tromsø's passing accuracy of 86% against Aalesund's 80% underlined their composure in possession, and their 61 dangerous attacks to Aalesund's 32 further highlights just how much the hosts dominated in terms of threat creation. Yet Aalesund's resilience and efficiency — scoring with just 3 shots on target — proved enough to deny Tromsø the victory their overall performance might have merited.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast called for a Tromsø win at 2-1, with a 64% probability assigned to a home victory. With a confidence score of 63/100, there was always acknowledgement of uncertainty, and on this occasion, the prediction proved incorrect. The model correctly identified Tromsø's likely dominance — the statistics largely validated that — but underestimated Aalesund's ability to punish a momentary lapse and hold firm. The draw outcome, assigned a 21% probability in our forecast, ultimately reflected the fine margins that define close Eliteserien contests.

Key Takeaways

  • Tromsø's early lead did not translate into three points, despite a statistically commanding performance across most metrics.
  • Aalesund showed resilience and clinical efficiency, scoring with limited opportunities and frustrating their hosts over 90-plus minutes.
  • Innvær's contribution was a double-edged sword — a goal and a yellow card that perhaps disrupted his rhythm at a pivotal juncture.
  • Both managers made active use of their benches in the second half, but the scoreline remained unchanged after Christensen's equaliser.
  • For Tromsø, converting dominance into points will be the key challenge going forward; for Aalesund, this point on the road represents a valuable show of character.

Tromsø vs Aalesund Head-to-Head

Last 5 meetings between Tromsø and Aalesund: Tromsø 10W · 8D · Aalesund 9W.

10

8

9

Mon, May 25, 2026Tromsø1-1Aalesund
Sun, Oct 8, 2023Tromsø1-2Aalesund
Sun, Jun 11, 2023Aalesund2-3Tromsø
Sun, Nov 13, 2022Tromsø2-2Aalesund
Mon, Apr 18, 2022Aalesund2-2Tromsø

Tromsø vs Aalesund — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win Tromsø vs Aalesund?

PredictNext's AI model favours Tromsø with a 64% win probability — Tromsø 64%, draw 21%, Aalesund 15%.

What is the predicted score for Tromsø vs Aalesund?

The AI forecasts a 2-1 scoreline for Tromsø vs Aalesund, generated with 63% model confidence.

Will Tromsø vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives 58% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for under 2.5 goals in Tromsø vs Aalesund.

How accurate was the Tromsø vs Aalesund prediction?

PredictNext's AI predicted 2-1; the match finished 1-1. The winner call was incorrect.

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