St. Mirren
St. Mirren
0 vs 3

Premiership · Matchday

2026-05-09 14:00:00 · 22:00

Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock

AI Predicted: 1-0|Actual: 0-3

WinnerScoreO/U 2.5BTTS

AI Prediction

St. Mirren
ST.
1 - 0
Kilmarnock
KIL
56%
Confidence
Low Confidence
46.0%Home
28.5%Draw
25.5%Away
**St. Mirren** hold a slim home advantage against **Kilmarnock**, boosted by the visitors' defensive disruption — R. Idowu is ruled out through suspension, forcing Kilmarnock to reshuffle at the back. Despite Kilmarnock's dominance in recent H2H meetings, St. Mirren's home compactness could prove decisive in a tight affair. AI pick: St. Mirren Win

Top AI Picks

AI-generated recommendations
Two outcomes coveredHome or Draw
75% probability
Over or Under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5
55% chance of 3+ goals
Will both teams find the net?No
50% one side shut out
Handicap advantage pickNo data available
Most likely to scoreNo data available

Goal Probability

St. Mirren Kilmarnock
29%
33%
0
71%
67%
1
0%
0%
2
0%
0%
3+

Odds Comparison

46%
46%
-0.5%
28%
28%
+0.8%
26%
26%
-0.3%
PredictNext AI Market Avg
AI & Market Agree: Home Win

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Match Report

St. Mirren 0-3 Kilmarnock | Scottish Premiership | 9 May 2026

Result Summary

Kilmarnock produced a composed and clinical performance at the SMiSA Stadium, inflicting a comprehensive 3-0 defeat on St. Mirren to claim all three points. An early own goal from Miguel Freckleton set the tone, before Findlay Curtis added two second-half strikes to seal an emphatic away victory for Neill McCann's side.

Match Analysis

The contest was effectively shaped in its opening exchanges. Inside nine minutes, an unfortunate deflection from Miguel Freckleton gave Kilmarnock an undeserved-looking lead, though one they would go on to thoroughly merit. St. Mirren's afternoon was further disrupted when Conor McMenamin was forced off as early as the 14th minute, with Scott Tanser introduced in his place — a disruption that unsettled Craig McLeish's side during an already difficult opening spell.

Despite holding 59% possession and generating 107 attacks to Kilmarnock's 65, St. Mirren were frustratingly wasteful when it mattered. Their 53 dangerous attacks compared to Kilmarnock's 25 paint a picture of a side that dominated territory without converting pressure into goals — managing just 2 shots on target from 12 total attempts. Kilmarnock, meanwhile, were far more efficient, registering 4 shots on target from 10 efforts.

The second half brought further damage. Just seconds after the restart, Findlay Curtis converted from the right foot, assisted by Greg Kiltie, to make it 2-0 and extinguish any lingering hope of a St. Mirren comeback. Curtis then added his second of the match on 68 minutes — again a right-foot finish, this time set up by Tom Lowery — to complete a thoroughly professional away display. St. Mirren's indiscipline also told against them, with Liam Donnelly, Roland Idowu, and Killian Phillips all receiving yellow cards across the 90 minutes.

Kilmarnock's discipline in managing the game was notable. Their substitutions were measured — David Watson, Lewis Mayo, Bruce Anderson, and Rory McKenzie all came on to help see out the result, with match winner Findlay Curtis withdrawn late for Kyle Magennis once the three points were secured.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast had anticipated a narrow St. Mirren home win at 1-0, with a confidence rating of just 56/100 — reflecting the genuine uncertainty surrounding this fixture. The predicted outcome proved incorrect; Kilmarnock not only won but did so with significant authority. While our model acknowledged a 25.5% probability for an away victory, the statistical dominance shown by St. Mirren in possession and attack metrics may well have leaned the forecast toward the home side. However, as this match demonstrated, efficiency and composure in front of goal can outweigh volume of possession, a factor that ultimately defined the outcome.

Key Takeaways

  • Findlay Curtis was the standout performer, registering a second-half brace to put the result beyond doubt.
  • St. Mirren's attacking inefficiency remains a concern — 107 attacks yielding zero goals underlines a conversion problem.
  • Kilmarnock's defensive structure held firm despite conceding the majority of possession, limiting St. Mirren to just 2 shots on target.
  • Craig McLeish will need to address both clinical finishing and defensive resilience after a chastening home defeat.
  • Neill McCann's Kilmarnock side demonstrated the value of counter-attacking precision, making every opportunity count.

St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock Head-to-Head

Last 5 meetings between St. Mirren and Kilmarnock: St. Mirren 14W · 16D · Kilmarnock 27W.

14

16

27

Sat, May 9, 2026St. Mirren0-3Kilmarnock
Wed, Feb 11, 2026Kilmarnock4-3St. Mirren
Sat, Dec 27, 2025St. Mirren0-0Kilmarnock
Sat, Oct 4, 2025Kilmarnock2-0St. Mirren
Sat, Mar 29, 2025St. Mirren5-1Kilmarnock

St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock?

PredictNext's AI model favours St. Mirren with a 46% win probability — St. Mirren 46%, draw 28%, Kilmarnock 26%.

What is the predicted score for St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock?

The AI forecasts a 1-0 scoreline for St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock, generated with 56% model confidence.

Will St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for under 2.5 goals in St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock.

How accurate was the St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock prediction?

PredictNext's AI predicted 1-0; the match finished 0-3. The winner call was incorrect.

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