Rosenborg
Rosenborg
2 vs 3

Eliteserien · Matchday

2026-05-16 14:00:00 · 22:00

Aalesund
Aalesund

AI Predicted: 1-1|Actual: 2-3

WinnerScoreO/U 2.5BTTS

AI Prediction

Rosenborg
ROS
1 - 1
Aalesund
AAL
59%
Confidence
Low Confidence
58.0%Home
23.0%Draw
19.0%Away
Rosenborg enter this Eliteserien clash as clear favorites, boosted by Aalesund's suspension blow with A. Fonn Witry ruled out through a yellow card accumulation. Rosenborg's home dominance — winning three of the last five H2H meetings — makes their attacking pressure the decisive tactical factor to watch. AI pick: Rosenborg Win

Top AI Picks

AI-generated recommendations
Two outcomes coveredHome or Draw
81% probability
Over or Under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5
58% chance of 0-2 goals
Will both teams find the net?No
60% one side shut out
Handicap advantage pickNo data available
Most likely to scoreNo data available

Goal Probability

Rosenborg Aalesund
15%
37%
0
46%
63%
1
39%
0%
2
0%
0%
3+

Odds Comparison

58%
59%
-1.0%
23%
22%
+1.0%
19%
19%
-0.1%
PredictNext AI Market Avg
AI & Market Agree: Home Win

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Match Report

Rosenborg 2–3 Aalesund | Eliteserien | 16 May 2026

Result Summary

In one of the more surprising results of the Eliteserien weekend, Aalesund claimed a stunning 3–2 away victory at Rosenborg, overturning an early deficit to leave Lerkendal with all three points. Despite being outplayed across virtually every statistical category, Kjetil André Rekdal's side showed remarkable resilience and clinical efficiency to defeat Alexander Banor Tettey's home outfit.

Match Analysis

Rosenborg set the tone immediately, with Amin Chiakha breaking the deadlock in just the third minute, finishing with his left foot from an assist by Mads Bomholt. The early goal appeared to set Rosenborg on course for a comfortable afternoon, and the statistics largely back up their dominance — 66% ball possession, 119 attacks compared to Aalesund's 86, and 72 dangerous attacks to the visitors' 33. Rosenborg also enjoyed a remarkable 11 corners to nil and completed 83% of their passes versus Aalesund's 67%.

Yet clinical finishing ultimately proved decisive, and on that front Aalesund were the sharper side. Kristian Hemmingsen Lonnebu levelled on 29 minutes, converting from Marius Andresen's assist with a composed left-foot finish to ensure parity at the break. Despite Rosenborg's territorial control, the equaliser underlined Aalesund's ability to hurt on the counter.

Rosenborg made a double substitution at half-time — Adrian Pereira and Iver Fossum introduced for Jonas Mortensen and Ole Selnæs — but it was Aalesund who struck first after the interval. Mathias Christensen put the visitors ahead on 50 minutes, finishing right-footed from Endre Hjertager Osenbroch's assist to complete a stunning turnaround. Both sides had identical four shots on target, but Aalesund were simply more lethal with their opportunities.

The game appeared to swing back toward Rosenborg when Emil Konradsen Ceide reduced the deficit to 2–1 on 78 minutes with a right-foot finish. However, Aalesund responded almost immediately — substitute Davíð Snær Jóhannsson, on just four minutes earlier, teed up Endre Hjertager Osenbroch for a decisive third goal on 80 minutes, a left-foot strike that effectively sealed the points. The impact of Aalesund's bench was telling; Osenbroch himself was withdrawn shortly after at the 81st minute, having delivered both an assist and a goal in the second half.

The closing stages were fractious, with a flurry of yellow cards — five for Aalesund and one more each for Dino Islamovic and Aalesund's Alexander Hammer Kjelsen in stoppage time during what appeared to be a heated exchange. Elias Heggland Myrlid was also booked for time-wasting deep into added time, reflecting the tension of the final minutes as Rosenborg searched for a way back.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast anticipated a 1–1 draw, giving the home side a 58% probability of victory and assigning Aalesund only a 19% chance of winning. That projection proved incorrect, as Aalesund's efficiency in front of goal belied their relatively limited attacking output. The model correctly identified Rosenborg's likely dominance in possession and attacks, but underestimated Aalesund's ability to convert limited opportunities into a matchwinning performance.

Key Takeaways

  • Aalesund's clinical edge was the difference — four shots on target, three goals, a ruthless display under Rekdal.
  • Rosenborg dominated the ball but lacked cutting edge, managing only four shots on target despite 119 attacks and 11 corners.
  • The Osenbroch–Jóhannsson combination late in the game proved decisive and highlighted the quality of Aalesund's substitutes.
  • Rosenborg's home form will concern Tettey, as a lead was surrendered twice

Rosenborg vs Aalesund Head-to-Head

Last 5 meetings between Rosenborg and Aalesund: Rosenborg 16W · 11D · Aalesund 4W.

16

11

4

Sat, May 16, 2026Rosenborg2-3Aalesund
Sun, Aug 27, 2023Rosenborg4-0Aalesund
Sun, Jul 2, 2023Aalesund1-0Rosenborg
Sun, Aug 21, 2022Rosenborg2-1Aalesund
Sun, Jul 17, 2022Aalesund0-0Rosenborg

Rosenborg vs Aalesund — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win Rosenborg vs Aalesund?

PredictNext's AI model favours Rosenborg with a 58% win probability — Rosenborg 58%, draw 23%, Aalesund 19%.

What is the predicted score for Rosenborg vs Aalesund?

The AI forecasts a 1-1 scoreline for Rosenborg vs Aalesund, generated with 59% model confidence.

Will Rosenborg vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives 42% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for under 2.5 goals in Rosenborg vs Aalesund.

How accurate was the Rosenborg vs Aalesund prediction?

PredictNext's AI predicted 1-1; the match finished 2-3. The winner call was incorrect.

More Eliteserien AI Predictions