Fatih Karagümrük 2–1 Alanyaspor | Super Lig Match Analysis

Result Summary

Fatih Karagümrük claimed a hard-fought 2–1 victory over Alanyaspor on May 17, with head coach Aleksandar Stanojević overseeing a resilient home performance. Despite going behind in the first half and ceding significant territorial control to the visitors, Karagümrük responded with characteristic grit, turning the match around to secure all three points. Alanyaspor, guided by Natanael João Pereira Costa, struggled to translate their statistical dominance into goals, ultimately paying the price for a lack of clinical finishing.

Match Analysis

Alanyaspor started the stronger side, and Meschak Elia rewarded their early pressure in the 32nd minute, finishing with a right-foot shot from an assist by Florent Hadergjonaj to give the visitors the lead. The goal reflected Alanyaspor's more threatening approach in the opening period — a theme supported by their significantly higher 48 dangerous attacks compared to Karagümrük's 24, and their superior 56% ball possession.

However, Karagümrük demonstrated their quality almost immediately after the restart. Just two minutes into the second half, Sam Larsson levelled the tie in the 47th minute with a right-foot finish, assisted by Barış Kalaycı. It was a timely and clinical response that changed the complexion of the contest entirely.

The home side's third goal — the match-winner — is not detailed in the goal-by-goal breakdown, but the final scoreline of 2–1 confirms Karagümrük found a way through once more. Despite Alanyaspor's statistical edge in passing accuracy (89% to 84%), key passes (8 to 5), and shots (11 to 8), the home side were notably more efficient, registering 4 shots on target from just 8 attempts — matching Alanyaspor's on-target count from a lower volume of chances.

A notable incident occurred at the 70th minute when a VAR review involving substitute Warren Babicka Shavy, who had entered the field in the 64th minute replacing Ahmed Traore, was conducted. Alanyaspor pushed hard for an equaliser through a flurry of triple substitutions in the 72nd minute — bringing on İbrahim Kaya, Ianis Hagi, and Izzet Celik — and further changes in the 81st and 82nd minutes, including Efecan Karaca and Güven Yalçın. Despite the fresh legs, the visitors could not find parity. A late yellow card for Çağtay Kurukalıp in the 90+4th minute for an argument was the final noteworthy moment, as Karagümrük saw out the victory.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast leaned towards an Alanyaspor win (44% probability), with the away side rated as slight favourites at a confidence level of 54/100. This prediction proved incorrect. While the statistical picture on the day — possession, dangerous attacks, key passes — arguably justified the pre-match lean toward Alanyaspor, football's decisive currency remains goals, and Karagümrük demonstrated greater composure in front of goal. The low confidence rating reflected genuine uncertainty in this fixture, and the result serves as a reminder that underlying metrics do not always determine outcomes.

Key Takeaways

• Sam Larsson's immediate second-half equaliser was the turning point — a moment of individual quality that shifted momentum decisively.
• Alanyaspor's 48 dangerous attacks versus Karagümrük's 24 underlines their territorial dominance, but poor finishing from 5 off-target shots proved costly.
• Karagümrük's efficiency in attack — more measured but more effective — was the defining factor in Stanojević's side claiming the victory.
• Alanyaspor's mass substitutions in the final quarter showed intent but ultimately failed to unlock a resilient home defence.