Casa Pia 1–1 Rio Ave | Liga Portugal | 17 May 2026

Result Summary

A hard-fought stalemate at Estádio Pina Manique saw Casa Pia and Rio Ave share the spoils in what proved to be a tale of two contrasting halves. Gaizka Larrazabal Goikoetxea broke the deadlock for the hosts just before the interval, only for Jalen Aleix Miller Blesa to level matters shortly after the restart. Despite a dominant second-half push from Álvaro Pacheco's side, neither team could find a winner, leaving both clubs with a point apiece.

Match Analysis

Casa Pia controlled the attacking tempo throughout, despite spending less time with the ball. Rio Ave held 59% possession, yet the hosts more than compensated through directness and pressing intent. Casa Pia registered an impressive 20 total shots to Rio Ave's 6, with 5 on target compared to 3 for the visitors — a shot volume that underlines just how much danger the home side generated without converting their superiority into a victory.

The opening goal arrived on 35 minutes, when Dailon Livramento — making his presence felt before being substituted — delivered the assist for Larrazabal Goikoetxea, who finished with his right foot to give Casa Pia a deserved lead. The hosts had been the more threatening side, racking up 66 dangerous attacks and winning 9 corners (to Rio Ave's none), a clear indicator of sustained pressure.

The second half, however, began with a jolt for the home side. Just seven minutes after the restart, Rio Ave equalized through Jalen Aleix Miller Blesa, whose right-foot effort drew his side level and reset the dynamic of the contest. It was a clinical moment from a visiting team that had largely been camped in their own half of the stats sheet.

A VAR review at 59 minutes complicated Casa Pia's afternoon further, coinciding with a double substitution as Rafael Brito and Jérémy Livolant entered the fray, replacing Seba Pérez and the assist-maker Livramento. Pacheco continued to chase the match with further changes — Abdu Conté, Iyad Mohamed, and Oluwakorede David Osundina all introduced in the closing stages — but Rio Ave's defensive resilience, backed by their 81% passing accuracy, helped them see out the draw.

João Miguel Marques received the match's only yellow card in the 80th minute for a foul, reflecting the growing frustration from a Casa Pia side that couldn't find the breakthrough despite 12 key passes — dwarfing Rio Ave's 4.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match analysis forecast a 1–1 draw, and that is precisely how the contest concluded. With a confidence rating of 54/100, the prediction reflected genuine uncertainty across all three outcomes, with the home win marginally favoured at 48%. The draw was assigned a 27% probability, making the correct outcome the second-most likely in our model. The forecast proved accurate, rewarding those who trusted the analysis.

Key Takeaways

• Casa Pia dominated territory and shot count but lacked the finishing efficiency to convert their superiority into three points.
• Rio Ave were resolute in defence, using their possession advantage to manage periods of the game effectively despite limited attacking output.
• Larrazabal Goikoetxea's strike and Miller Blesa's equalizer encapsulate a match where both sides had their moment, but neither could claim full dominance.
• With 9 corners to 0 in favour of Casa Pia, the hosts will rue a failure to convert set-piece opportunities into goals.