Basel
Basel
1 vs 3

Super League · Matchday

2026-05-14 14:30:00 · 22:30

St. Gallen
St. Gallen

AI Predicted: 1-1|Actual: 1-3

WinnerScoreO/U 2.5BTTS

AI Prediction

Basel
BAS
1 - 1
St. Gallen
ST.
50%
Confidence
Low Confidence
36.0%Home
26.0%Draw
38.0%Away
St. Gallen enter as slight favorites, boosted by defensive vulnerabilities in Basel's setup — most notably with N. Weibel ruled out through a cruciate ligament tear and H. Vandermersch suspended. St. Gallen's strong recent H2H record (two wins and three draws in the last five) underlines their resilience against Basel. AI pick: St. Gallen Win

Top AI Picks

AI-generated recommendations
Two outcomes coveredHome or Away
74% probability
Over or Under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5
54% chance of 0-2 goals
Will both teams find the net?No
52% one side shut out
Handicap advantage pickNo data available
Most likely to scoreNo data available

Goal Probability

Basel St. Gallen
35%
0%
0
47%
60%
1
18%
40%
2
0%
0%
3+

Odds Comparison

36%
36%
+0.4%
26%
25%
+0.8%
38%
39%
-1.2%
PredictNext AI Market Avg
AI & Market Agree: Away Win

Polymarket Odds

Loading prediction market data...

Trading Strategy

Loading market depth data...

Match Report

Basel 1–3 St. Gallen | Swiss Super League | 14 May 2026

Result Summary

St. Gallen produced a commanding away performance at St. Jakob-Park, defeating Basel 3–1 in a result that defied the home side's statistical dominance in possession. Despite Basel controlling 61% of the ball and generating 88 attacks to St. Gallen's 86, it was Enrico Maaßen's side who proved far more clinical, registering 21 shots in total with 6 on target compared to Basel's 11 shots and just 2 on target. The win was a triumph of efficiency over possession.

Match Analysis

A feisty opening saw both sides receive early bookings — Bénie Traoré and Tom Gaal were carded in the 10th minute for fouls, with Aliou Badara Baldé also booked three minutes later. A VAR decision involving Dominik Robin Schmid at the 13th minute added further early drama, though it did not alter the scoreline at that stage.

The first half remained goalless but was clearly disrupted by disciplinary issues, with Leo Leroy picking up a yellow just two minutes into the second half, pointing to a fractious encounter under the surface.

St. Gallen broke the deadlock on 51 minutes when Aliou Badara Baldé converted with a right-foot shot — a poacher's finish that rewarded the visitors' sharper attacking intent despite Basel's greater ball retention. Stephan Lichtsteiner's Basel responded with a double substitution at the 57th minute, introducing Koba Koindredi and Albian Ajeti to inject more attacking impetus, while Xherdan Shaqiri departed the field.

The substitutions initially showed some promise, but St. Gallen doubled their lead on 78 minutes through substitute-creator combination — Carlo Boukhalfa finishing with his left foot from an assist by Mihailo Stevanovic, giving the visitors breathing room. Basel pulled one back in the 88th minute, with Nicolas Vouilloz heading home from a Koba Koindredi assist in what appeared to be a potential lifeline. However, almost immediately, substitute Nevio Scherrer — who had come on just minutes earlier — struck with a right-foot shot in the 89th minute to restore St. Gallen's two-goal cushion and seal the points.

Key Passes told a significant story: St. Gallen produced 15 key passes to Basel's 11, reflecting how Maaßen's side created higher-quality opportunities despite lower possession. Basel's 82% successful pass rate compared to St. Gallen's 68% underlines that passing precision alone cannot substitute for genuine cutting edge in the final third.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast of a 1–1 draw proved incorrect. With predicted probabilities sitting at Home 36%, Draw 26%, and Away 38%, the model did identify St. Gallen as marginal favourites — yet settling on a draw as the headline prediction at just 50/100 confidence highlighted the genuine uncertainty surrounding this fixture. In hindsight, St. Gallen's superior shot creation and clinical finishing fully justified the away-win lean in the probability model, even if the scorecard ultimately reads more comfortably for them than anticipated.

Key Takeaways

  • St. Gallen's clinical edge was the defining factor — 6 shots on target converted into 3 goals against a Basel side that struggled to translate possession into genuine danger.
  • Nevio Scherrer's impact as a substitute was decisive, putting the game beyond doubt seconds after Basel had shown signs of life.
  • Basel's 10 corners and 61% possession produced minimal reward, reinforcing a recurring challenge for Lichtsteiner's side in converting territorial advantage into goals.
  • With fouls heavily weighted toward St. Gallen (23 vs 12), Maaßen's side will need to manage discipline better in future fixtures, despite taking the win.

Basel vs St. Gallen Head-to-Head

Last 5 meetings between Basel and St. Gallen: Basel 37W · 18D · St. Gallen 18W.

37

18

18

Thu, May 14, 2026Basel1-3St. Gallen
Sun, Mar 8, 2026St. Gallen3-0Basel
Sun, Nov 30, 2025Basel0-0St. Gallen
Sat, Jul 26, 2025St. Gallen2-1Basel
Sat, Feb 22, 2025St. Gallen2-2Basel

Basel vs St. Gallen — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win Basel vs St. Gallen?

PredictNext's AI model favours St. Gallen with a 38% win probability — Basel 36%, draw 26%, St. Gallen 38%.

What is the predicted score for Basel vs St. Gallen?

The AI forecasts a 1-1 scoreline for Basel vs St. Gallen, generated with 50% model confidence.

Will Basel vs St. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives 46% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for under 2.5 goals in Basel vs St. Gallen.

How accurate was the Basel vs St. Gallen prediction?

PredictNext's AI predicted 1-1; the match finished 1-3. The winner call was correct.

More Super League AI Predictions