Antalyaspor 1–0 Kocaelispor | Super Lig | 17 May 2026

Result Summary

A hard-fought and often fractious encounter at Antalyaspor's home ground ended with the hosts claiming all three points thanks to a 79th-minute goal from Samuel Ballet, assisted by Sander van de Streek. The narrow margin flatters Kocaelispor to some degree in terms of possession, but the attacking statistics tell a clear story: Antalyaspor were the more purposeful side throughout.

Match Analysis

Despite Kocaelispor enjoying the greater share of the ball — 59% possession to Antalyaspor's 41% — it was Sami Uğurlu's side that consistently threatened. Antalyaspor registered 16 total shots to Kocaelispor's 7, with a particularly telling disparity on target: 5 shots on target versus just 1 for the visitors. Their 10 key passes to Kocaelispor's 5 reinforces the picture of a team that, while ceding ground, was significantly sharper in the final third.

The match had a volatile edge to it from well before half-time. Habib Keïta picked up a yellow card for a foul in the 38th minute and was immediately substituted off, with Joseph Nonge Boende coming on. Just three minutes later, Ahmet Oğuz was also booked, and similarly replaced at the interval by Tayfur Bingöl. These early disruptions destabilized Kocaelispor's structure at a critical juncture.

The second half escalated in terms of disciplinary incidents. A VAR check on Daniel Agyei in the 17th minute had already signalled an edgy atmosphere, and the tension boiled over between the 61st and 77th minutes when nine yellow cards were distributed across both sides in a turbulent 16-minute spell. Notably, Antalyaspor saw Ramzi Safouri, Abdullah Yiğiter, Bünyamin Balcı, and Soner Dikmen all booked for arguments in quick succession — a sign of a highly charged touchline and bench environment. Kocaelispor's Daniel Agyei was cautioned for time-wasting in the 71st minute before being substituted off, while Manuel Luis Da Silva Cafumana received a similar booking moments later.

Amid this combustible backdrop, Samuel Ballet broke the deadlock in the 79th minute with a right-foot shot assisted by Sander van de Streek — a moment of quality to settle a game that had at times threatened to boil over entirely. Ballet's goal was itself followed by a yellow card for the scorer, illustrating just how tight the temperature of the match remained. Kocaelispor pushed in the dying minutes — corners stood at 4–2 in their favour — but their single shot on target summed up a lack of genuine cutting edge, and Rigoberto Manuel Rivas Vindel's stoppage-time booking capped a difficult evening.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast called for a 1–0 Antalyaspor win, carrying a confidence rating of 65/100 with a 62% probability assigned to a home victory. The prediction proved correct in both outcome and scoreline, validating the assessment that Antalyaspor held a meaningful home advantage despite Kocaelispor's possession-based tendencies under Selçuk İnan.

Key Takeaways

• Samuel Ballet's late strike was the difference in a tight, disciplined defensive display from Antalyaspor.
• Kocaelispor's possession (59%) did not translate into meaningful chances — just 1 shot on target is a damning return.
• 12 yellow cards across both teams signal a match that regularly threatened to spill out of control.
• Antalyaspor's ability to stay dangerous without the ball — 85 attacks, 29 dangerous — underlines a well-structured counter-pressing approach under Sami Uğurlu.