Al Ettifaq 1–3 Al Ittihad | Pro League | 14 May 2026

Result Summary

Al Ittihad secured a commanding 3–1 victory away at Al Ettifaq in the Saudi Pro League, with Moussa Diaby's brace and an early strike from Houssem Aouar proving the difference. A brief moment of hope from Khalid Essa Al Ghannam gave the hosts a foothold midway through the first half, but Sérgio Conceição's side ultimately never looked like relinquishing control.

Match Analysis

Al Ittihad set the tempo from the first whistle. Houssem Aouar broke the deadlock inside three minutes, finishing a right-footed effort assisted by Mario Mitaj to immediately put the hosts on the back foot. The early goal appeared to rattle Al Ettifaq, and Moussa Diaby doubled the advantage in the 19th minute, converting a pass from Fabinho to make it 2–0 before the match had properly settled.

Al Ettifaq briefly rallied. Khalid Essa Al Ghannam pulled one back in the 26th minute — a right-footed finish from a João Costa assist — and, for a period, the home side appeared capable of building momentum. Francisco Javier Calvo Quesada had already been booked for a foul in the 17th minute, and discipline was a concern throughout the afternoon.

The statistics, however, tell a clear story of Al Ittihad's dominance in the areas that matter most. Despite Al Ettifaq holding 52% possession, Ittihad registered 9 shots on target to just 3 for the hosts, and their 44 dangerous attacks compared to 29 underlined a decisive edge in quality of opportunity creation. Al Ittihad also produced 15 key passes to Ettifaq's 10, reflecting the composure of their build-up play.

Two VAR decisions involving Moussa Dembélé — at the 39th and 45+10th minutes — disrupted the flow late in the first half, contributing to a fractious atmosphere that also saw an Al Ittihad player booked for an argument deep into added time. Fabinho received a yellow card in the 44th minute, further indicating the intensity of the closing stages of the first period.

With the tie still theoretically alive at 2–1, Conceição turned to his bench. Faisal Al-Ghamdi came on in the 72nd minute and made an immediate impact, providing the assist for Diaby's second goal in the 79th minute — this time a composed left-footed finish that sealed the three points. Diaby's contributions on both ends of his brace were among the most decisive individual displays of the match.

Prediction Review

Our pre-match forecast called for a 1–2 away win in favour of Al Ittihad, with a 45.5% probability assigned to an Ittihad victory. The prediction proved correct in outcome, with the actual final score of 1–3 landing close to our projected scoreline — a particularly encouraging result given the modest confidence rating of 53/100. The model correctly identified Ittihad's superior attacking threat and their ability to convert chances at a higher rate.

Key Takeaways

• Moussa Diaby was the decisive figure, scoring twice and underscoring why Al Ittihad's attacking depth remains formidable.
• Al Ettifaq's possession (52%) masked their inefficiency, with only 3 shots on target across the full 90 minutes.
• Al Ittihad's shot conversion quality was exceptional, turning 9 on-target efforts into 3 goals.
• The VAR interventions and card count — four bookings in total — reflected a game that grew increasingly combative, particularly in the first half.
• Conceição's substitution of Faisal Al-Ghamdi proved tactically sound, with the substitute directly assisting the match-clinching goal shortly after his introduction.